Mon, Dec 6, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 15 | 05 | 119 |
| DAL | 17 | 08 | 312 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:09ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Clayton Keller, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 9:01DALJacob PetersonGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 15:14DALJamie BennPPAssists: Denis Gurianov, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 17:08DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.24 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:06ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:55ARIKyle Capobianco: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:18ARILiam O'Brien: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:43DALJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17ARILoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dzingel won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Galchenyuk – O'Brien9:22
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Kessel – Boyd – Keller12:40
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Eriksson – Roussel – Dzingel6:57
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Fischer – Crouse – Hayton10:08
xG 0.25–0.49 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Capobianco12:45
xG 0.55–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Capobianco2:12
xG 0.16–0.30 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin14:12
xG 0.34–0.73 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Peterson9:39
xG 1.10–0.18 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Kero4:41
xG 0.04–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Kiviranta3:29
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Kiviranta3:07
xG 0.01–0.04 (13%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen16:30
xG 0.95–0.29 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Suter – Klingberg15:53
xG 0.75–0.62 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell2:51
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).