Tue, Dec 7, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 014 | 38 | 533 |
| DET | 03 | 15 | 18 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 17:43NSHRoman JosiAssists: Dante Fabbro, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 9:58DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Pius Suter, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P3 2:33NSHNick CousinsGWGAssists: Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 7:07NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Dante Fabbro, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 8:57DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Adam Erne, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 19:29NSHDante FabbroENAssists: Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:17NSHMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:08DETVladislav Namestnikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 7:28DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:28NSHBen Harpur: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:39NSHAlexandre Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38DETDan Renouf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:55NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:55DETDan Renouf: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00DETSam Gagner: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg14:10
xG 1.25–0.32 (80%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:31
xG 0.63–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen10:46
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino8:27
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro19:23
xG 1.29–0.35 (78%)attempts 23–8goals 3–1
- Borowiecki – Carrier13:49
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Harpur – Myers10:33
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Namestnikov – Rowney2:35
xG 0.10–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Smith5:33
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Suter – Veleno – Zadina6:08
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen11:57
xG 0.29–0.79 (26%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Hronek16:16
xG 0.52–0.71 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Leddy – Oesterle2:01
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Renouf12:42
xG 0.11–0.63 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).