Thu, Dec 9, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Winnipeg Jets 3, Seattle Kraken 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 012 | 212 | 333 |
| SEA | 07 | 011 | 07 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24WPGDominic ToninatoGWGAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 0:47WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 14:54WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:44WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:22WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:30SEAAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:46WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P3 5:33SEAJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:59WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:36WPGBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Ehlers – Dubois11:09
xG 0.81–0.37 (68%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:29
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Stastny – Lowry – Vesalainen8:05
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Svechnikov6:06
xG 0.12–0.21 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey18:33
xG 1.23–0.79 (61%)attempts 31–16goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu10:51
xG 0.56–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Dillon – Stanley13:39
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – McCann – Appleton6:44
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gourde – Appleton – Tanev3:13
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Donato – Geekie6:07
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Gourde – Tanev9:35
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Oleksiak2:09
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Oleksiak14:03
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen9:47
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).