Fri, Dec 10, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Nashville Predators 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 03 | 218 | 16 | 327 |
| NJD | 06 | 19 | 116 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:34NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 13:11NSHRoman JosiAssists: Philip Tomasino, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 17:53NSHEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:11NSHYakov TreninGWGAssists: Nick Cousins, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 18:55NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Jack Hughes, Andreas Johnsson · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:26NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min
- P1 7:51NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:05NSHBen Harpur: Holding2 min
- P2 0:50NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:28NJDDawson Mercer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:31NSHMikael Granlund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:31NJDNico Hischier: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31NSHMikael Granlund: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:31NJDNico Hischier: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:40NSHEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Trenin – Jeannot9:22
xG 0.84–0.29 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Forsberg – Novak – Luff2:20
xG 0.09–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Tomasino7:47
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen9:46
xG 0.44–1.00 (31%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Benning2:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier2:27
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning7:54
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier9:12
xG 0.82–0.43 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Zacha – Bratt – Hughes2:45
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Sharangovich – Hughes7:00
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sharangovich – Hughes3:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Siegenthaler11:02
xG 1.09–0.65 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Graves11:08
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Subban – Smith12:10
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).