Fri, Dec 10, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Florida Panthers 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 310 | 09 | 04 | 323 |
| ARI | 18 | 09 | 06 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05FLAPatric HornqvistAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:15FLASam BennettGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 16:53ARIPhil KesselPPAssists: Travis Boyd, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 19:35FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:25FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:39FLAPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:22ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:40FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:59ARIRyan Dzingel: Interference2 min
- P2 14:15FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:25ARIJay Beagle: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:34ARIAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:34FLAMaxim Mamin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Reinhart – Bennett9:09
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Mamin – Lundell8:14
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Vatrano – Tippett6:38
xG 0.12–0.15 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen6:38
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling9:32
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad14:27
xG 0.33–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Montour – Juolevi9:42
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Beagle – Roussel8:06
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Dzingel – Fischer5:04
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Fischer – Hayton2:38
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Hayton5:49
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Lyubushkin10:33
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo10:31
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Stralman – Capobianco7:03
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).