Sun, Dec 12, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Florida Panthers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 07 | 215 | 231 |
| COL | 09 | 19 | 28 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:37COLAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 2:03COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 7:41FLAJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 10:15FLABrandon MontourAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 11:43COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:20FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:02COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:15FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:15COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:01COLCale Makar: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:23FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:00COLMikhail Maltsev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:42COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen8:01
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tippett – Lundell7:49
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Reinhart – Bennett12:30
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Montour – Carlsson3:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Montour – Juolevi3:15
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling4:29
xG 0.05–0.23 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:19
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Maltsev2:35
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – O'Connor – Newhook6:58
xG 0.08–0.08 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Aube-Kubel – Jost4:01
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard4:34
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar11:41
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard9:08
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).