Tue, Dec 14, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 8, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 38 | 417 | 838 |
| FLA | 19 | 113 | 013 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Nick Paul, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:05FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Sam Reinhart, Lucas Carlsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:30OTTDylan GambrellSHAssists: Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 15:33FLASam ReinhartAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 16:06OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 17:26OTTTim StützleAssists: Connor Brown, Alex Formenton · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 0:23OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.20 xG5–2
- P3 6:10OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Josh Norris · Snap, 0.16 xG6–2
- P3 14:24OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.34 xG7–2
- P3 14:57OTTNick PaulPPAssists: Connor Brown, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.18 xG8–2
Penalties (17)
- P1 9:04OTTZachary Sanford: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:03OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:34OTTJosh Norris: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 5:13FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09OTTAustin Watson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:10OTTChris Tierney: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:43OTTArtem Zub: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:10OTTArtem Zub: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:10FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:10FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:10FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:50FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:50FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:50OTTZachary Sanford: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:50FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 12:57FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:57FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:12
xG 1.10–0.66 (63%)attempts 14–22goals 3–0
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle9:27
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Watson – Paul – Gambrell10:42
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Ennis – Tierney – Sanford4:23
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeatherington – Mete9:38
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev15:49
xG 0.92–0.90 (51%)attempts 12–29goals 2–0
- Holden – Zub13:11
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Hornqvist – Heponiemi – Luostarinen9:15
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Lundell7:29
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Reinhart – Bennett5:12
xG 0.21–0.33 (38%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Vatrano – Tippett8:07
xG 0.05–0.50 (9%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Montour – Carlsson10:28
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Weegar – Ekblad10:45
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Gudas – Juolevi10:29
xG 0.58–1.15 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).