Tue, Dec 14, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 28 | 015 | 230 |
| PIT | 18 | 218 | 25 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:08PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 6:45PITEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:59MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Laurent Dauphin · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:27PITMike MathesonGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evan Rodrigues · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 19:57MTLJesse YlonenAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 0:28PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 9:38PITBrian BoyleUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:07MTLBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:03MTLJoel Armia: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:20MTLAlexander Romanov: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:55MTLKale Clague: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:43PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:38MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P3 16:36PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDauphin – Drouin – Ylonen9:42
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – Poehling – Caufield8:16
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Perreault – Hoffman – Suzuki6:05
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Armia – Suzuki4:25
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Clague9:43
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Kulak2:43
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Romanov12:25
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Simon – O'Connor7:31
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese9:25
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Crosby – Kapanen – Rodrigues13:52
xG 0.69–0.81 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Carter – Zucker – Heinen9:34
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel12:11
xG 0.76–0.44 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Letang – Dumoulin13:32
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Pettersson – Marino12:14
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).