Tue, Dec 14, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 27 | 26 | 525 |
| EDM | 012 | 015 | 19 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Ondrej Kase · Slap, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 8:47TORWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 14:54TORTJ BrodieAssists: Timothy Liljegren, David Kampf · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 5:26EDMColton SceviourAssists: Zack Kassian, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 6:33TORMorgan RiellyAssists: William Nylander · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 16:40TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Ondrej Kase · Snap, 0.15 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:37TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:54EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P1 19:16EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:39EDMDevin Shore: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:14TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:07
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Clifford – Seney4:33
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev8:41
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Bunting – Kase – Matthews13:29
xG 0.94–1.25 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly14:31
xG 1.29–0.50 (72%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Holl – Dermott14:56
xG 0.93–0.76 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Liljegren17:42
xG 0.52–1.49 (26%)attempts 8–24goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – McDavid – Puljujarvi7:43
xG 1.24–0.24 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto8:34
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Kassian – Ryan7:45
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Turris – Shore – Benson5:57
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard14:34
xG 1.59–0.50 (76%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Barrie – Niemelainen9:00
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Barrie – Nurse4:57
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).