Wed, Dec 15, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 013 | 219 | 213 | 01 | 446 |
| CHI | 06 | 312 | 18 | 12 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:36WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:55CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Dominik Kubalik · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 14:13CHIPhilipp KurashevPPAssists: Kirby Dach, Caleb Jones · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:29CHIMacKenzie EntwistleAssists: Brandon Hagel, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 19:18WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 11:57WSHLars EllerAssists: T.J. Oshie, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 15:00CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:57WSHConor ShearyAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 1:21CHICaleb JonesGWGAssists: Kirby Dach, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.28 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:06WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:51WSHDaniel Sprong: Holding2 min
- P2 2:21CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05WSHMartin Fehérváry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:48WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:50CHICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:50CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:59WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:42WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSgarbossa – McMichael – Protas2:49
xG 0.89–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Sgarbossa – Sprong – McMichael4:01
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Sheary8:20
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Eller – Sprong5:27
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry13:43
xG 1.60–0.16 (91%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen11:06
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov4:13
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Hagel – Kurashev3:07
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Entwistle – Dach3:16
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Toews – Connolly – Hagel4:45
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Entwistle – Slavin2:56
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Stillman3:25
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Jones – Stillman2:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- de Haan – Jones13:41
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).