Wed, Dec 15, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
New York Rangers 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 115 | 26 | 330 |
| ARI | 113 | 08 | 110 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:46ARILoui ErikssonSHAssists: Clayton Keller, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 10:40NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 8:47ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 14:14NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 17:42NYRKaapo KakkoPPGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:10NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:06ARITravis Boyd: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:59NYRJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:14ARIPhil Kessel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:01ARILiam O'Brien: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00ARIPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Rooney – Gauthier5:54
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko13:06
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin4:44
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Hunt – Lafrenière7:06
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:42
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller16:43
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Hajek12:32
xG 0.16–0.85 (16%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – Galchenyuk6:40
xG 0.49–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – O'Brien – Fischer2:51
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Boyd – Keller12:36
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Ladd – Galchenyuk – O'Brien3:17
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDineen – Lyubushkin11:45
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – Moser15:16
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo14:49
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).