Sat, Dec 18, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 18 | 012 | 233 |
| DET | 110 | 312 | 18 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:39DETDylan LarkinAssists: Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:11NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:48DETDylan LarkinAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:27DETTyler BertuzziGWGAssists: Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 15:47DETDylan LarkinAssists: Kyle Criscuolo · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 17:25NJDDawson MercerSHAssists: Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 14:07DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:23NJDKevin Bahl: Holding2 min
- P2 6:34NJDDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:07DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:07NJDMichael McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:07NJDMichael McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:31DETTyler Bertuzzi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:58DETTaro Hirose: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Zacha – Hughes10:45
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes3:00
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Vesey – Bastian – McLeod8:10
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Studenic – Mercer6:24
xG 0.12–0.47 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Siegenthaler20:12
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Bahl4:59
xG 0.12–0.20 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Smith10:54
xG 0.32–0.98 (24%)attempts 14–14goals 0–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Erne – Suter9:47
xG 0.97–0.71 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Barber – Criscuolo – Hirose4:26
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Veleno – Hirose6:00
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:40
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 8–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Lindstrom13:05
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Leddy – Hronek12:27
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Seider15:13
xG 0.28–0.75 (27%)attempts 6–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).