Sat, Dec 18, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Edmonton Oilers 5, Seattle Kraken 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 220 | 19 | 212 | 541 |
| SEA | 27 | 17 | 03 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18SEARyan DonatoAssists: Morgan Geekie, Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:07SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 13:05EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Cooper Marody, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 17:08EDMWarren FoegelePPAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.37 xG2–2
- P2 12:52EDMColton SceviourAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 16:33SEACarson SoucyAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 8:54EDMWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:08EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Zack Kassian, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:26EDMColton Sceviour: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:26SEAJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:49SEAJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49SEACarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:44EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:28EDMTyson Barrie: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:28SEAJared McCann: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Ryan – Benson10:25
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Foegele – McDavid13:24
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Griffith – Draisaitl – Marody2:33
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Draisaitl – Perlini – Yamamoto13:39
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse18:45
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Ceci – Lagesson14:08
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Koekkoek – Bouchard14:00
xG 0.97–0.74 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 3–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – McCann14:54
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Donskoi – Donato – Geekie6:34
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Tanev – True2:53
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Wennberg – Tanev6:14
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Soucy3:50
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Soucy – Lauzon7:00
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 2–2
- Soucy – Fleury4:11
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).