Sun, Dec 19, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Los Angeles Kings 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 19 | 210 | 324 |
| WSH | 114 | 111 | 010 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Joe Snively · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 13:47WSHJustin SchultzAssists: Conor Sheary, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 17:04LAKBlake LizotteSHAssists: Alex Iafallo, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:50LAKChristian WolaninAssists: Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 9:36LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Matt Roy, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:52LAKCarl Grundstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 10:50WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P1 15:13WSHBeck Malenstyn: Holding2 min
- P2 1:32LAKBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:32LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:32WSHBeck Malenstyn: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:32WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:32LAKBlake Lizotte: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:09LAKLias Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:56WSHJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:46LAKBlake Lizotte: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:46LAKBlake Lizotte: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 16:42LAKChristian Wolanin: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:11LAKLias Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:11WSHConor Sheary: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:03WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Kempe10:00
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Andersson – Kupari4:37
xG 0.15–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Moore – Iafallo8:29
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev3:17
xG 0.00–0.33 (1%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Roy13:12
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Wolanin – Anderson7:24
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Durzi – Bjornfot10:04
xG 0.28–0.55 (33%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Hathaway – Protas4:22
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Snively – McMichael5:34
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Leason7:31
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Eller – Sprong11:37
xG 0.22–0.39 (37%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry11:22
xG 0.58–0.30 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Orlov – Jensen8:54
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk10:19
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).