Mon, Feb 14, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 18 | 26 | 625 |
| SEA | 16 | 08 | 111 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56TORAlexander KerfootAssists: John Tavares, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:05SEACalle JarnkrokAssists: Mason Appleton · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 11:06TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 14:03TOROndrej KasePPGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 9:15TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 3:37TORDavid KampfSHAssists: Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 6:52SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 18:19TORJake MuzzinAssists: Timothy Liljegren, William Nylander · Slap, 0.03 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:48SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:30SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:37TORDavid Kampf: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:59TORJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P3 6:47TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKase – Kampf – Mikheyev11:23
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews13:08
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall9:01
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:15
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Liljegren2:29
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Liljegren – Sandin14:42
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Holl – Sandin2:31
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Gourde – Appleton9:58
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Donato – Czarnik – Geekie6:58
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Donato – Czarnik3:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Donskoi – Wennberg8:45
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Fleury16:27
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Larsson16:12
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Dunn – Lauzon13:03
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).