Thu, Feb 17, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 3, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 28 | 07 | 115 | 330 |
| EDM | 116 | 314 | 311 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Cam Fowler, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:14ANASonny MilanoPPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 18:46EDMEvander KanePPAssists: Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:12EDMDerek RyanAssists: Cody Ceci, Warren Foegele · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 7:26EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:21EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 4:21EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan · Snap, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 9:17ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 10:19EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 11:37EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:18ANATroy Terry: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:42EDMTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:27EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:52ANAIsac Lundeström: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:12ANASam Carrick: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:21ANAHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Steel10:33
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–3
- Grant – Deslauriers – Carrick7:24
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Rakell – Milano – Zegras9:58
xG 0.32–0.47 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 1–2
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström10:02
xG 0.21–0.92 (18%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Mahura7:10
xG 0.88–0.27 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Shattenkirk – Fowler14:17
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale17:44
xG 0.51–0.92 (36%)attempts 10–17goals 1–3
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:17
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Yamamoto6:05
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan6:35
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McLeod5:43
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiemelainen – Bouchard4:08
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse10:02
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Ceci – Broberg2:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).