Sat, Feb 12, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 112 | 115 | 316 | 543 |
| NSH | 217 | 08 | 011 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Filip Forsberg, Alexandre Carrier · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:19NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 7:44WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Ville Heinola, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:58WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 10:53WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 11:52WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 16:46WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:41WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:35WPGNeal Pionk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:38NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P1 12:29NSHTanner Jeannot: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:02NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:02WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:55WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:07NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:07NSHLuke Kunin: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 8:07NSHLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:07NSHLuke Kunin: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:07WPGKristian Reichel: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:10NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min
- P3 9:36NSHMark Borowiecki: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P3 9:36NSHMark Borowiecki: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 12:33WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToninato – Harkins – Svechnikov3:46
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Reichel7:24
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti10:15
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele10:08
xG 0.50–0.55 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey9:23
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Morrissey – Pionk2:18
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pionk – Heinola10:55
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Tolvanen – Tomasino3:49
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg8:31
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Johansen – Cousins – Kunin3:36
xG 0.03–0.03 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot7:30
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro10:41
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier9:36
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Benning9:27
xG 0.21–0.56 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).