Sat, Feb 19, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 112 | 310 | 634 |
| TOR | 19 | 212 | 016 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:40STLKlim KostinAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 15:33TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 5:30TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 5:59STLBrayden SchennAssists: Justin Faulk, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 17:44TORTJ BrodieAssists: David Kampf, Ondrej Kase · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 4:38STLBrandon SaadGWGAssists: David Perron, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 10:50STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Niko Mikkola, David Perron · Deflected, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 16:43STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.78 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:27TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:57STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:57STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:57TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas15:07
xG 0.79–0.60 (57%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad14:11
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Schenn – Sundqvist – Barbashev12:38
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Bozak – Brown – Kostin6:03
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug18:30
xG 0.89–0.75 (54%)attempts 19–24goals 2–2
- Bortuzzo – Walman9:41
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola20:13
xG 0.71–1.32 (35%)attempts 13–24goals 3–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews17:12
xG 1.12–0.63 (64%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall7:01
xG 0.28–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander11:15
xG 0.42–0.41 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 2–2
- Kase – Kampf – Mikheyev12:00
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin4:52
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Holl – Sandin10:50
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl5:27
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).