Sun, Feb 20, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 28 | 110 | 018 | 336 |
| CBJ | 219 | 312 | 28 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47CBJDean KukanAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:05BUFMark PysykAssists: Victor Olofsson, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 17:14BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 17:24CBJBoone JennerAssists: Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 3:28CBJDean KukanAssists: Gavin Bayreuther, Brendan Gaunce · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 8:16CBJZach WerenskiGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 17:43CBJBrendan GaunceAssists: Patrik Laine, Dean Kukan · Snap, 0.14 xG2–5
- P2 19:28BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Peyton Krebs, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 19:24CBJGustav NyquistENAssists: Sean Kuraly, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
- P3 19:56CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Brendan Gaunce · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:48BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:44BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:45CBJBrendan Gaunce: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:28CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:28BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Asplund – Cozens7:49
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Mittelstadt – Krebs5:52
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork7:56
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Okposo – Asplund – Mittelstadt4:28
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hagg12:34
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Bryson – Samuelsson2:06
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Jokiharju2:09
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Roslovic – Danforth6:33
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Domi – Chinakhov11:22
xG 0.79–0.43 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger9:51
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Voracek – Jenner – Laine13:21
xG 0.54–0.80 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Boqvist12:40
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Kukan – Bayreuther9:18
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Gavrikov – Peeke2:15
xG 0.02–0.07 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).