Fri, Feb 11, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 05 | 216 | 432 |
| ARI | 16 | 04 | 29 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:11TBLCorey PerryAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 19:08ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: J.J. Moser, Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 4:03TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 9:54ARIClayton KellerAssists: Travis Boyd, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 12:18TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:22ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Christian Fischer, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:50TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:26ARIJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:48ARIRiley Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:45ARIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Raddysh – Colton9:07
xG 0.76–0.21 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph6:38
xG 0.55–0.12 (83%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare8:09
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point12:10
xG 0.49–0.33 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev10:37
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Hedman – Raddysh2:18
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev3:08
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Nash – Roussel – Fischer9:18
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Kessel – Galchenyuk – Crouse10:40
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller11:30
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–3
- Eriksson – Ladd – Dzingel8:03
xG 0.07–0.90 (7%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin15:08
xG 0.35–0.54 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
- Stralman – Moser13:22
xG 0.46–0.88 (34%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Mayo14:48
xG 0.26–0.84 (24%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).