Thu, Mar 24, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Detroit Red Wings 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 013 | 013 | 213 | 239 |
| NYI | 25 | 111 | 210 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:07NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:39NYIBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 1:19NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 13:25DETPius SuterAssists: Filip Hronek, Tyler Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 14:07NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 15:18DETSam GagnerAssists: Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:12NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 16:32NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:39DETTaro Hirose: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:11NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Erne – Pearson3:51
xG 0.78–0.36 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Pearson2:13
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Erne – Veleno2:41
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Vrana – Suter3:23
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Lindstrom14:19
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Seider18:12
xG 0.95–0.78 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Hronek11:41
xG 0.86–0.76 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–3
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:48
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau10:21
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom11:38
xG 0.71–0.92 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Bellows7:47
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Aho10:54
xG 0.84–0.73 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Chara – Dobson13:23
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Chara – Aho2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).