Sat, Jan 1, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 018 | 215 | 516 | 749 |
| CBJ | 39 | 17 | 02 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Jack Roslovic, Emil Bemstrom · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:30CBJAdam BoqvistAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 18:04CBJGustav NyquistSHAssists: Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 8:39CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Eric Robinson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 9:11CARSteven LorentzAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Derek Stepan · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 14:05CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 6:53CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Brett Pesce, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 10:34CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Ian Cole, Frederik Andersen · Slap, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 10:50CAREthan BearGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Slap, 0.01 xG5–4
- P3 11:59CARSteven LorentzAssists: Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.33 xG6–4
- P3 17:30CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.79 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:08CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:45CBJGustav Nyquist: Interference2 min
- P2 5:59CARDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:25CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:48CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Trocheck – Svechnikov10:22
xG 1.81–0.17 (92%)attempts 22–3goals 1–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Jarvis8:38
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho10:48
xG 0.84–0.52 (62%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Staal – Necas – Kotkaniemi9:36
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce16:07
xG 1.79–0.11 (94%)attempts 29–5goals 2–0
- Cole – Bear10:45
xG 1.05–0.65 (62%)attempts 16–5goals 2–2
- Slavin – DeAngelo16:23
xG 1.01–0.86 (54%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Nyquist – Kuraly – Texier11:13
xG 0.82–0.83 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
- Domi – Roslovic – Bemstrom6:22
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 1–2
- Voracek – Jenner – Laine14:03
xG 0.54–0.91 (37%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Robinson – Chinakhov – Sillinger6:44
xG 0.09–0.74 (11%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Boqvist2:23
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Werenski – Bean16:22
xG 0.76–0.70 (52%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Carlsson – Peeke9:57
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).