Sat, Jan 1, 2022·Target Field, MinneapolisOutdoor game
St. Louis Blues 6, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 114 | 514 | 04 | 632 |
| MIN | 16 | 19 | 218 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:54MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:27STLJordan KyrouUnassisted · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 8:55STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 14:46STLIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P2 17:58STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P2 18:38MINRem PitlickAssists: Victor Rask, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P2 19:19STLTorey KrugAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 8:40MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 14:22MINKevin FialaAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:38STLJordan Binnington: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:36STLLogan Brown: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54MINDmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P2 9:03STLNiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P2 12:47MINNico Sturm: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:15MINRem Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:04STLColton Parayko: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Saad10:37
xG 0.63–0.09 (88%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas8:54
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 10–10goals 3–2
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Brown7:32
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Barbashev – Kostin8:34
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:01
xG 0.67–0.35 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola12:04
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Scandella – Perunovich9:07
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Bjugstad – Rask – Pitlick8:09
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Fiala8:33
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Greenway – Duhaime – Sturm7:34
xG 0.09–0.36 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:42
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Addison10:46
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Dumba15:35
xG 0.54–0.84 (39%)attempts 19–17goals 3–2
- Benn – Kulikov10:55
xG 0.09–0.63 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).