Sun, Jan 2, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 018 | 011 | 09 | 038 |
| NYR | 310 | 19 | 02 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:37NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 14:53NYRRyan StromeAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 16:53NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:23TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:17NYRRyan Strome: Holding2 min
- P1 11:17TBLJan Rutta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:29TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:03NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53TBLCorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 7:39NYRJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Colton4:27
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli9:05
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph5:50
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Katchouk – Colton5:04
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta13:22
xG 0.74–0.32 (69%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev2:35
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:04
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Goodrow – Lafrenière12:59
xG 0.85–0.50 (63%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Hunt – Gauthier – Chytil6:54
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Gettinger10:00
xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko12:10
xG 0.54–0.89 (38%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Hajek10:53
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Trouba – Fox2:33
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Hajek – Lundkvist2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).