Sun, Jan 2, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 5, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 226 | 210 | 542 |
| CHI | 111 | 09 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Henrik Borgstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:13CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:08CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 17:46CGYTrevor LewisSHAssists: Blake Coleman, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 18:05CGYOliver KylingtonENAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
- P3 18:34CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:39CGYDillon Dube: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:21CHIAlex DeBrincat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:29CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:59CHIJosiah Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:57CGYNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:14CHIKirby Dach: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 19:12CGYSean Monahan: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dube won the faceoff against Borgstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:50
xG 0.86–0.35 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Backlund – Pitlick – Coleman9:41
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Mangiapane – Dube8:37
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Richardson – Lewis – Monahan8:33
xG 0.08–0.21 (29%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov14:04
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:35
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
- Tanev – Kylington17:39
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kane – DeBrincat – Borgstrom10:14
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Gabriel – Khaira – Slavin5:30
xG 0.03–0.03 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kurashev – Dach11:03
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Khaira – Hagel2:48
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Jones2:10
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Jones5:37
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- de Haan – Jones10:36
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).