Tue, Jan 4, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 2, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 112 | 18 | 226 |
| DET | 110 | 314 | 27 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:02DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 2:04DETPius SuterSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 2:41DETTyler BertuzziSHGWGAssists: Carter Rowney, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 4:03SJSJasper WeatherbyAssists: Brent Burns, Jeffrey Viel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 9:32DETPius SuterAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 1:40SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 3:51DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Gustav Lindstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 5:01DETRobby FabbriUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG2–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:30DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30SJSJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:43SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:16DETGivani Smith: Boarding5 min
- P1 18:16DETGivani Smith: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 11:00DETSam Gagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:00SJSNicolas Meloche: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:52DETAdam Erne: Interference2 min
- P2 18:47SJSJeffrey Viel: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:35SJSJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:35SJSJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:35SJSJeffrey Viel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:35DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:35DETTyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:47DETLucas Raymond: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Viel – Weatherby5:10
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov3:28
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Nieto – Reedy – Halbgewachs5:06
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Bonino – Gregor – Barabanov5:23
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Meloche6:50
xG 0.57–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Burns – Simek3:49
xG 0.09–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Simek5:59
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Rasmussen – Suter5:22
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Suter2:03
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Smith2:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond11:43
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Hronek14:56
xG 0.86–0.58 (60%)attempts 17–6goals 2–2
- DeKeyser – Seider10:26
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Lindstrom14:18
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).