Tue, Jan 4, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 314 | 214 | 28 | 736 |
| CBJ | 07 | 28 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:30TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 17:27TBLCorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 0:37CBJDean KukanAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 1:36TBLBrayden PointAssists: Cal Foote, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 4:16CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Andrew Peeke, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 12:19TBLPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Corey Perry, Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.30 xG5–2
- P3 0:36TBLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Jan Rutta · Snap, 0.10 xG6–2
- P3 12:20TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.12 xG7–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:18CBJSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:51TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:04CBJDean Kukan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P2 12:10CBJScott Harrington: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 8:45TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 17:18TBLAlex Killorn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNash – Katchouk – Raddysh9:09
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli11:39
xG 0.79–0.55 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:53
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Palat – Point – Joseph9:27
xG 0.37–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta13:06
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:25
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Foote2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Robinson7:22
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Kuraly – Domi9:58
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Chinakhov11:46
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Voracek – Laine – Sillinger10:25
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Kukan – Boqvist16:30
xG 0.79–0.77 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Harrington – Carlsson13:43
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke16:09
xG 0.58–0.95 (38%)attempts 14–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).