Tue, Jan 4, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 118 | 121 | 349 |
| ARI | 07 | 010 | 110 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:34WPGEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kristian Vesalainen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 14:40WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–0
- P3 6:41ARIShayne GostisbehereUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:15WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:04WPGBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P2 0:48ARIJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:32WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:40ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:33ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:49ARIPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:48WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:48ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Reichel8:44
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Stastny – Lowry – Ehlers2:06
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Toninato – Svechnikov – Vesalainen5:47
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Stastny – Scheifele – Ehlers9:46
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:10
xG 0.71–0.28 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk14:40
xG 0.81–0.56 (59%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey2:55
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Roussel – Fischer6:47
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton9:50
xG 0.64–0.69 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Ladd – Boyd – O'Brien6:46
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Crouse10:40
xG 0.31–0.83 (27%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Moser12:24
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo14:39
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Lyubushkin7:16
xG 0.08–0.94 (8%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).