Tue, Feb 22, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
New York Islanders 5, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 214 | 19 | 536 |
| SEA | 04 | 111 | 110 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:19NYIZach PariseAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Deflected, 0.69 xG2–0
- P2 5:34NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Zach Parise · Snap, 0.28 xG3–0
- P2 10:33NYICasey CizikasAssists: Scott Mayfield, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.19 xG4–0
- P2 11:18SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 1:35SEARiley SheahanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:02NYIZach PariseENAssists: Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P3 6:54SEAMason Appleton: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Geekie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Palmieri – Barzal11:20
xG 1.68–0.11 (94%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:41
xG 0.92–0.70 (57%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Pageau12:02
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Nelson – Beauvillier – Bellows11:55
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock4:55
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Dobson14:29
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Aho5:46
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 2–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Johansson – McCann15:05
xG 0.84–0.75 (53%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Blackwell – Wennberg5:41
xG 0.13–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Blackwell – Geekie5:14
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Donato – Czarnik – Geekie5:33
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Dunn6:17
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Fleury12:35
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Dunn2:19
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).