Wed, Jan 5, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 315 | 07 | 329 |
| PIT | 014 | 211 | 316 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:20STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Torey Krug · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 8:45STLJordan KyrouAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 13:30PITBryan RustPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 13:49STLColton ParaykoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Scott Perunovich · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 15:46PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 12:23PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, John Marino · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 12:35PITEvan RodriguesPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 18:21PITBrock McGinnAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:42PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20STLNiko Mikkola: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:48STLTorey Krug: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:35STLNiko Mikkola: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:23STLDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 14:10STLPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:57STLTyler Bozak: Holding2 min
- P3 18:21STLVladimir Tarasenko: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas11:53
xG 1.14–0.71 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Brown7:29
xG 0.24–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Barbashev12:25
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad11:26
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Mikkola17:39
xG 0.75–0.83 (47%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
- Scandella – Perunovich11:22
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug14:44
xG 0.11–0.95 (10%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Heinen – Rodrigues10:30
xG 0.71–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:44
xG 1.24–0.92 (57%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Boyle – Simon – Bjorkqvist7:08
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese12:35
xG 0.37–0.38 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin19:14
xG 1.28–0.79 (62%)attempts 21–13goals 2–1
- Matheson – Ruhwedel11:44
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino14:15
xG 0.21–0.56 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).