Sun, Feb 20, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 7, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 411 | 26 | 15 | 722 |
| EDM | 113 | 114 | 16 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:21MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 6:17MINKevin FialaAssists: Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P1 13:38MINKevin FialaGWGAssists: Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.09 xG4–0
- P1 16:32EDMEvander KanePPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 8:28MINConnor DewarAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–1
- P2 14:21MINMatt BoldyAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.08 xG6–1
- P2 15:58EDMTyler BensonAssists: Zach Hyman, William Lagesson · Slap, 0.29 xG6–2
- P3 5:36MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.11 xG7–2
- P3 18:54EDMZach HymanAssists: Ryan McLeod · Backhand, 0.17 xG7–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:36EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:54MINNick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:36MINDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 9:48EDMCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:53EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P3 16:53EDMKailer Yamamoto: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Duhaime – Dewar8:13
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:19
xG 0.09–0.46 (16%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:54
xG 0.57–0.96 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:07
xG 0.78–1.22 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Brodin16:41
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 15–15goals 3–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon17:28
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Merrill – Addison11:57
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Benson3:00
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan8:52
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – McLeod3:43
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto8:16
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lagesson5:39
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lagesson – Niemelainen3:21
xG 0.18–0.06 (77%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Niemelainen – Bouchard3:31
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).