Thu, Jan 13, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 3, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 110 | 112 | 332 |
| DET | 09 | 07 | 017 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41WPGAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 11:07WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 17:29WPGKyle ConnorENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:24WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:30WPGMark Scheifele: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:30DETTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:06WPGJosh Morrissey: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:41WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:41WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:41DETPius Suter: Holding2 min
- P2 17:31DETSam Gagner: Interference2 min
- P3 14:43WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:31WPGDominic Toninato: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Perfetti10:26
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Svechnikov10:44
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Lowry – Poganski – Harkins9:34
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Toninato – Suess – Vesalainen4:36
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Chisholm12:03
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:13
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk11:52
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Fabbri – Suter – Zadina8:56
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno9:54
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:32
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen9:31
xG 0.02–0.55 (4%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Hronek13:14
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
- Staal – Lindstrom15:25
xG 0.14–0.68 (17%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Seider14:28
xG 0.12–0.75 (13%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).