Thu, Jan 13, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 113 | 18 | 434 |
| CGY | 010 | 06 | 112 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43OTTNick PaulAssists: Alex Formenton · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:37OTTNick PaulGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Alex Formenton · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 19:03OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 0:47CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Chris Tanev, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 4:52OTTConnor BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:10OTTErik Brannstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:47OTTScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:47CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:04CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:11CGYBrett Ritchie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:22CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:22CGYNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Gambrell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paul – Formenton11:16
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Sabourin2:58
xG 0.03–0.02 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell10:27
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:37
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Brannstrom11:47
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker16:33
xG 0.88–1.07 (45%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Holden – Zub18:22
xG 0.43–0.83 (34%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk13:42
xG 0.99–0.45 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Monahan10:20
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Mangiapane – Dube9:23
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Backlund – Pitlick – Coleman11:06
xG 0.25–0.73 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington16:59
xG 1.13–0.54 (67%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:23
xG 0.93–0.98 (49%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
- Gudbranson – Zadorov12:06
xG 0.59–0.74 (44%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).