Fri, Jan 14, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 112 | 13 | 03 | 0 | 326 |
| COL | 218 | 014 | 111 | 04 | 1 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36COLMikko RantanenAssists: Devon Toews, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:03COLTyson JostAssists: Kurtis MacDermid · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 17:31ARIClayton KellerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 6:12ARIJohan LarssonAssists: Andrew Ladd, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 0:39ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Phil Kessel, Lawson Crouse · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 1:08COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ARI Andrew Ladd stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. ARI Clayton Keller stopped
- 6. COL Nazem Kadri scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:02ARIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:04ARILiam O'Brien: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:05COLValeri Nichushkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:06ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:06COLKurtis MacDermid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:06COLKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:06COLMikhail Maltsev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:27ARIJ.J. Moser: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:46ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:33ARIJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:15COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Kessel – Larsson – Crouse10:03
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Dzingel – O'Brien – Schmaltz3:42
xG 0.05–0.49 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Roussel – Fischer8:24
xG 0.32–0.77 (30%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
- Ladd – Boyd – Keller8:44
xG 0.02–0.49 (4%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lyubushkin – Moser13:14
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo15:28
xG 0.49–0.87 (36%)attempts 14–22goals 2–1
- Soderstrom – Kolyachonok11:45
xG 0.19–1.34 (12%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Nichushkin – Aube-Kubel10:22
xG 0.92–0.06 (94%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:09
xG 0.69–0.08 (90%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- MacDermid – Jost – Maltsev4:49
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Compher – O'Connor – Newhook7:03
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray4:06
xG 1.03–0.33 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard8:55
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar13:34
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 19–15goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).