Sat, Jan 15, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 0, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 08 | 08 | 022 |
| DET | 222 | 08 | 29 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57DETTyler BertuzziPPGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 19:09DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P3 0:13DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 12:24DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:35BUFColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:25BUFCody Eakin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 0:38DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26DETGivani Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:01DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:26BUFJacob Bryson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:17DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:36BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:22DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork5:21
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Hinostroza – Cozens6:55
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson6:50
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Olofsson – Asplund5:23
xG 0.02–0.50 (4%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Bryson2:16
xG 0.16–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hagg – Jokiharju2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Hagg2:25
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Larkin – Raymond8:11
xG 1.17–0.20 (85%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter6:08
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Zadina5:22
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen2:29
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Seider7:52
xG 1.13–0.28 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Hronek7:58
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Leddy – Lindstrom12:36
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).