Wed, Feb 9, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Calgary Flames 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 010 | 013 | 028 |
| CGY | 314 | 111 | 28 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:24CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Noah Hanifin, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 15:06CGYElias LindholmAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 6:57CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 3:09CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–5
- P3 15:44CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:20VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P1 16:55CGYNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 7:10CGYTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:22VGKDylan Coghlan: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Howden4:33
xG 0.43–0.29 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Janmark – Kolesar – Roy6:52
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stephenson – Patrick3:55
xG 0.02–0.12 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Carrier – Howden – Patrick5:04
xG 0.08–0.28 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Theodore2:10
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague16:04
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Hutton – Coghlan11:47
xG 0.10–0.70 (12%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:49
xG 0.99–0.41 (71%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk13:26
xG 0.92–0.47 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Ritchie – Monahan – Dube10:35
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka9:48
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson16:45
xG 1.31–0.19 (88%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Tanev – Kylington17:54
xG 0.85–0.67 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov15:22
xG 0.47–0.78 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).