Mon, Jan 17, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 09 | 216 | 14 | 335 |
| BUF | 17 | 08 | 113 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 9:21BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 10:21DETVladislav NamestnikovSHAssists: Moritz Seider, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 13:28DETDylan LarkinAssists: Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 2:07DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:38BUFPeyton Krebs: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:59DETJoseph Veleno: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:59BUFDylan Cozens: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:47BUFKyle Okposo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:47DETAdam Erne: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:21DETAdam Erne: Bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter14:13
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Erne – Rasmussen – Zadina7:45
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno5:03
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Raymond12:48
xG 0.28–0.68 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Hronek15:17
xG 0.91–0.12 (89%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Leddy – Lindstrom15:01
xG 0.70–0.34 (68%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Seider15:04
xG 0.67–0.58 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson10:26
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Cozens8:06
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork9:24
xG 0.02–0.34 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Hinostroza – Krebs7:39
xG 0.03–0.35 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:49
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Samuelsson14:47
xG 0.77–1.02 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Butcher – Hagg13:46
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).