Mon, Jan 31, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 313 | 114 | 02 | 429 |
| TOR | 29 | 013 | 411 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 6:20NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Colton White, Janne Kuokkanen · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–0
- P1 6:33TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 9:10NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P1 15:04TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 7:33NJDNathan BastianAssists: Ryan Graves, Jesper Boqvist · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 4:16TORJason SpezzaAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 13:28TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 16:56TORIlya MikheyevSHGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 19:38TORAuston MatthewsENAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 11:04NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P2 17:55TORTJ Brodie: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:46NJDPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:44TORJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:37TOROndrej Kase: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:13NJDRyan Graves: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBastian – Kuokkanen – Boqvist4:35
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Vesey – Kuokkanen – Boqvist3:06
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Zacha – Bastian – Hischier5:28
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johnsson – Mercer9:15
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Smith8:06
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler20:09
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 2–2
- Subban – Graves13:25
xG 0.57–0.74 (44%)attempts 11–20goals 1–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews14:14
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:20
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Kase – Kampf – Mikheyev9:07
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Engvall4:17
xG 0.03–0.39 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Liljegren10:09
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 3–1
- Holl – Sandin16:31
xG 0.87–0.69 (56%)attempts 26–9goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly17:35
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 16–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).