Mon, Jan 17, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Montréal Canadiens 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 111 | 07 | 226 |
| ARI | 29 | 27 | 17 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19ARITravis BoydAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 8:18ARIJohan LarssonAssists: Phil Kessel, Dysin Mayo · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 15:11MTLRem PitlickAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 4:27ARIJ.J. MoserGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 11:13MTLRyan PoehlingPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 18:02ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Antoine Roussel, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 18:18ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Schmaltz, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:36ARILiam O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P2 6:18ARILiam O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 9:34ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:41MTLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:02MTLCole Caufield: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 4:52MTLBrett Kulak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:40MTLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:41MTLAlexander Romanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Dvorak – Pitlick7:54
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Evans6:21
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Suzuki9:42
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Dauphin – Poehling – Caufield5:02
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Kulak10:22
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Chiarot13:36
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Petry – Romanov16:24
xG 0.33–1.01 (25%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Schmaltz – Keller10:31
xG 0.86–0.12 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Crouse9:01
xG 0.50–0.42 (55%)attempts 12–4goals 2–1
- Dzingel – O'Brien – Fischer7:03
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nash – Roussel9:06
xG 0.04–0.62 (6%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Moser12:45
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Soderstrom – Kolyachonok14:07
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Mayo13:32
xG 0.57–0.61 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).