Tue, Jan 18, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 7, Boston Bruins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 512 | 08 | 214 | 734 |
| BOS | 110 | 013 | 09 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 6:03CARJesperi KotkaniemiGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P1 11:13BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 11:26CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 16:01CARSeth JarvisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P1 16:57CARDerek StepanAssists: Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.22 xG5–1
- P3 3:05CARJaccob SlavinPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–1
- P3 7:48CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.33 xG7–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:48CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:11BOSConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:55CARBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:38CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:30CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:33CARVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:13BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:04BOSErik Haula: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis8:00
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Kotkaniemi8:48
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Svechnikov9:55
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Lorentz8:46
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo14:30
xG 1.39–0.57 (71%)attempts 17–17goals 4–0
- Cole – Smith15:19
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce12:55
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith7:54
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak10:07
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – DeBrusk2:38
xG 0.11–0.08 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Steen2:14
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlo – Vaakanainen12:56
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Forbort – Clifton13:23
xG 0.67–0.81 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Clifton – Vaakanainen2:23
xG 0.02–0.21 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).