Wed, Feb 9, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 215 | 211 | 28 | 634 |
| PHI | 211 | 18 | 05 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 3:03PHIIsaac RatcliffeAssists: Zack MacEwen, Nick Seeler · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 6:02DETLucas RaymondAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 6:26PHITravis SanheimAssists: Claude Giroux, Oskar Lindblom · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 6:12DETPius SuterAssists: Robby Fabbri, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 11:00DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Pius Suter, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 11:21PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Travis Konecny, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 8:46DETGivani SmithAssists: Joseph Veleno, Gustav Lindstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 19:05DETVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.78 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:18PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 3:03DETFilip Zadina: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 13:05PHIMax Willman: Interference2 min
- P2 1:07PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:13DETDylan Larkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:39DETJoseph Veleno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:59DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:37DETRobby Fabbri: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Zadina – Raymond10:57
xG 0.90–0.01 (99%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter9:05
xG 0.71–0.12 (85%)attempts 13–3goals 2–1
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen7:38
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno6:16
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Seider4:12
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Seider7:03
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindstrom3:28
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBunnaman – MacEwen – Ratcliffe8:11
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny7:32
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Brassard – Willman – Mayhew7:53
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Atkinson – Lindblom8:48
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Ristolainen2:41
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov12:09
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Yandle – Seeler8:16
xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).