Tue, Jan 18, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 011 | 112 | 00 | 333 |
| WSH | 111 | 110 | 18 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 2:20WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 16:58WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 4:26WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Connor McMichael, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 4:15WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Justin Schultz, Tom Wilson · Wrap-around, 0.00 xG2–3
- P3 18:55WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Adam Lowry, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–3
- OT 0:26WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:22WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:20WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:42WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:20WPGNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P2 16:56WSHCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:26WSHNic Dowd: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Perfetti11:29
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Lowry – Poganski – Harkins11:17
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Copp – Ehlers11:38
xG 0.83–0.83 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Toninato – Vesalainen – Reichel4:47
xG 0.04–0.22 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk9:47
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Pionk2:22
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey18:08
xG 0.73–0.94 (44%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – Protas11:20
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Hathaway12:14
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Eller – Sprong – McMichael4:33
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Leason10:56
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Fehérváry13:03
xG 0.67–0.44 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Orlov – Jensen12:17
xG 0.84–0.63 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry5:07
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).