Tue, Jan 18, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 1, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 18 | 010 | 129 |
| CGY | 210 | 114 | 27 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 11:36CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 12:36FLASam BennettAssists: Mason Marchment, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 16:03CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 3:47CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 6:43CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:13FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:08CGYDillon Dube: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:51FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:34FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:34CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:21CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:00FLAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:33FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:33CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Holding2 min
- P3 19:05CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:05FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:05CGYBrett Ritchie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen3:30
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart7:25
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Vatrano – Lundell3:03
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Marchment – Lomberg – Luostarinen2:31
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad13:23
xG 1.34–0.37 (78%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gudas – Juolevi2:22
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling5:39
xG 0.18–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:34
xG 0.81–0.62 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube11:05
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Ritchie8:16
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane14:01
xG 0.39–0.78 (33%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov13:34
xG 0.79–0.40 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington2:23
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson16:37
xG 0.82–0.92 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).