Thu, Jan 20, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 5, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 113 | 221 | 213 | 547 |
| BUF | 210 | 28 | 06 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Anders Bjork, Henri Jokiharju · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:37BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 16:50DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 1:09BUFDylan CozensAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 5:26DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, John Klingberg · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 11:40DALTyler SeguinAssists: Denis Gurianov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 14:13BUFAlex TuchAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 12:23DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 16:28DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:21DALJani Hakanpää: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:38BUFRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49BUFMark Pysyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:21BUFRasmus Dahlin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:45DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P2 19:32DALRiley Damiani: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:49BUFCody Eakin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:36BUFRasmus Asplund: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Gurianov12:38
xG 1.92–0.68 (74%)attempts 28–9goals 1–1
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl8:15
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Peterson – Damiani – Kiviranta2:36
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:42
xG 0.42–0.64 (39%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen21:05
xG 1.78–0.77 (70%)attempts 32–11goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Hanley6:35
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell17:35
xG 1.31–1.20 (52%)attempts 24–15goals 1–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson7:29
xG 0.78–0.38 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Olofsson – Cozens – Quinn4:49
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork10:11
xG 0.62–0.66 (49%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Olofsson – Asplund4:24
xG 0.04–0.27 (14%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Dahlin2:08
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Hagg – Samuelsson3:26
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson2:11
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).