Thu, Jan 20, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 122 | 07 | 314 | 443 |
| PIT | 312 | 214 | 18 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28PITDominik SimonAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:12OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Nick Holden · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 11:40PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 15:59PITMike MathesonAssists: Brock McGinn, Teddy Blueger · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 11:32PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 18:41PITMike MathesonGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, John Marino · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 1:45OTTTim StützleAssists: Zachary Sanford, Alex Formenton · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 3:33OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 8:02OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
- P3 19:13PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:15PITBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:15OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:21OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:31PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:47OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P1 19:52PITBryan Rust: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:44OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06PITKasperi Kapanen: Holding2 min
- P3 5:49OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Interference2 min
- P3 7:27PITEvan Rodrigues: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 7:51PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:51OTTAlex Formenton: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50PITJohn Marino: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:02
xG 1.24–0.79 (61%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Tierney – Bishop – Gaudette7:58
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sanford – Formenton – Stützle7:40
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 1–2
- Watson – Paul – Gambrell7:48
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Bernard-Docker13:00
xG 0.91–0.34 (73%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Brown – Brannstrom8:31
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Holden – Zub10:52
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Blueger – McGinn8:47
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Rodrigues – Simon8:27
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 1–2
- Malkin – Kapanen – Heinen9:35
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:48
xG 0.50–1.02 (33%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Marino11:38
xG 0.99–0.39 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson6:55
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel3:27
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).