Fri, Jan 21, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Arizona Coyotes 0, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 04 | 09 | 04 | 017 |
| NYI | 28 | 06 | 221 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:51NYIScott MayfieldGWGAssists: Adam Pelech, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:49NYIAustin CzarnikAssists: Anders Lee, Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 1:22NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 9:59NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Bailey · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:56NYIBrock Nelson: Embellishment2 min
- P1 1:56ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:15ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:02NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:02ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:20ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Galchenyuk – O'Brien9:09
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller11:47
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–3
- Kessel – Larsson – Crouse13:55
xG 0.16–0.54 (22%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Ladd – Nash – Fischer10:27
xG 0.21–0.78 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin16:08
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Moser16:36
xG 0.48–0.56 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Gostisbehere – Mayo13:50
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier11:34
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Lee – Barzal – Czarnik10:39
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:48
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Wahlstrom5:43
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson16:24
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Pelech12:13
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Greene – Salo12:32
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).