Sat, Jan 22, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 011 | 113 | 333 |
| BUF | 410 | 16 | 18 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:18PHIRasmus RistolainenAssists: Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 12:44PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Ivan Provorov, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 15:33BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 15:57BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P1 18:00BUFPeyton KrebsGWGAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Mark Jankowski · Slap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 2:24BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Rasmus Asplund · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 4:36BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 14:49PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:54PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:37PHIZack MacEwen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:33PHIZack MacEwen: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 0:15BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:24BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:48BUFJohn Hayden: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:30PHIZack MacEwen: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:30BUFJeff Skinner: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:41BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:46PHIGerry Mayhew: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:38BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Laughton – Willman – Allison3:08
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Konecny – Frost2:57
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Laughton – Lindblom – Konecny3:51
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- MacEwen – Mayhew – Cates4:32
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov15:25
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Yandle – York8:17
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York3:08
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Bjork – Krebs7:47
xG 0.71–0.05 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:27
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Asplund – Cozens12:08
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Eakin – Jankowski – Hayden2:20
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Samuelsson14:22
xG 1.00–0.39 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Hagg – Bryson11:53
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin14:01
xG 0.21–0.30 (40%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).