Sun, Jan 23, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 15 | 08 | 05 | 0 | 229 |
| PIT | 012 | 011 | 212 | 03 | 1 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 8:11WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 6:55PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Danton Heinen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 7:04PITJeff CarterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 5. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 6. WPG Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:40WPGKristian Vesalainen: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:05WPGNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:05PITBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:24WPGNate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:46WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P2 7:03PITDominik Simon: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03WPGNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- OT 5:00PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Perfetti13:42
xG 0.89–0.37 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp10:13
xG 0.62–0.54 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Stastny – Lowry – Poganski9:38
xG 0.10–0.25 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen6:49
xG 0.08–0.45 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey16:42
xG 0.78–0.59 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk17:17
xG 0.79–0.92 (46%)attempts 13–23goals 1–2
- Beaulieu – Samberg9:08
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Heinen – Rodrigues4:48
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – McGinn – Simon2:00
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – Heinen5:32
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Kapanen – Heinen2:18
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Marino8:04
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:51
xG 0.92–0.75 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel8:44
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).