Mon, Jan 24, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 1, Calgary Flames 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 02 | 012 | 121 |
| CGY | 317 | 418 | 013 | 748 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10STLTyler BozakAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Klim Kostin · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 6:01CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 12:46CGYChris TanevGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 15:46CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 3:24CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 14:11CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Trevor Lewis · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–5
- P2 16:09CGYAdam RuzickaAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P2 19:36CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:58STLNiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P1 15:06STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 15:54CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:02STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:23STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 7:27STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02CGYErik Gudbranson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Perron – O'Reilly – Buchnevich5:27
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn4:05
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Saad – Barbashev2:41
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Kostin6:04
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 1–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko2:25
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella8:50
xG 0.18–0.34 (36%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug12:13
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:36
xG 1.37–0.19 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube8:48
xG 0.86–0.28 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:50
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Lewis – Ritchie – Ruzicka6:01
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson16:43
xG 1.48–0.35 (81%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov15:49
xG 1.23–0.26 (83%)attempts 25–4goals 2–0
- Tanev – Kylington13:27
xG 1.19–0.24 (83%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).