Tue, Jan 25, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 0, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 011 | 010 | 032 |
| OTT | 312 | 117 | 119 | 548 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:53OTTTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Adam Gaudette, Joshua Brown · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:11OTTDrake BathersonPPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 18:48OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Chris Tierney, Adam Gaudette · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 11:15OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 19:30OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Joshua Brown, Lassi Thomson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:54BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:43OTTJoshua Brown: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:01BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:47OTTAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:47BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59OTTChris Tierney: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:15BUFVictor Olofsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:25OTTAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:25OTTZachary Sanford: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:25BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:20OTTTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:23BUFRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:37OTTJosh Norris: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Jankowski – Girgensons3:49
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Cozens6:52
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Bjork – Mittelstadt – Krebs7:42
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:54
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Samuelsson9:45
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
- Hagg – Bryson11:36
xG 0.34–0.71 (33%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
- Jokiharju – Dahlin12:48
xG 0.24–0.86 (22%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFormenton – Tkachuk – Stützle2:19
xG 0.29–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Gaudette5:52
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Sanford – Norris – Tkachuk3:55
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Paul – Gambrell2:23
xG 0.12–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Thomson14:35
xG 1.32–0.30 (82%)attempts 29–9goals 3–0
- Brown – Mete9:44
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Holden – Zub11:10
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).